tv Fast Money CNBC November 6, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
we're out of time that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city times square this is "fast money. i'm mella lee. traders are raring to go tim seymour. karen finerman guy adami. reed hayesings is live at the deal book conference with andrew ross sorkin after a tough few months for the stock can they turn it around we'll bring you the can't miss interview straight ahead speaking of streaming dinelson out with earnings brands ewe disney plus service. why some options trade remembers betting on real magic. later up in smoke, a medical marijuana stock plunging more than 17% today after better hand than expected earnings is there relief in sight for the sector we gwin with the news make net flex ceo reed hayesings taking
the stage at the deal book conference let's listen in sfl back to our stage you've been with us before we thank you now. >> i have. >> one of the reason we wanted to see you was because we are right in the midst of the streaming wars. >> we are. >> which have just begun with apple plus last week and with disney plus coming next week and i want to use this opportunity for you to help us understand how you're looking at all of these different components parts and what's about to happen to our media ecosystem. here is where i want to start the conversation. >> okay. >> i know you have historically said you don't have think you have any competition or if you do it is with sleep. do you remember that line? a great line only got a couple of laughs here but you got more laughs before. >> when i do it it's better. >> thank you and so my question is now that you see what's happening in this ecosystem, an ecosystem which you effectively created or at least inspired what you think is going to happen. look at hbo max, disney plus on
one said you obviously have hulu in the middle of this. >> huge, yeah. >> apple what does it look like to you? >> so there is a lot of competitors all throughout the world but if you are asking in the u.s. market, youtube, hulo be amazon prime net flex all launched 2007, 2008. 11 years ago the four of us have been you know competing hard for all this time and then everyone is realized wow this internet thing really works and consumers are enjoying it and so now all the major media companies are investing in err their own services process and it's great for consumers it's more competition for us but we've already got a lot of competition. and most of it is people will watch less linear tv appear now watch say disney content on the disney plus service. >> so do you think -- did i mean i guess the real question is do you think that people are going to make decisions and say i'm doing either disney or netflix or hbo max
or et cetera. >> you know, not -- in terms of skushing people will subscriber to a couple of services the way they subscriber to a couple of news services but in terms of time that's the competition. the tricky thing in in streaming war is you know apple and disney is not breaking out revenue for the service. and you'll hear subscribers numbers but you can bundle things in so that's not that relevant the real misemmit will be time how do consumers vote with the evenings and do they end up watching what mix of all the services? so starting in q 1 you start to see a breakout from nielsen and others. >> bob igor told our own maureen dowd look no one will have a monopoly or mythology of on storytelling what netflix is doing to skraet a content to support a plachlt. we are making content to tell great stories. it's very different. >> yeah, i would say we are both trying to please consumers so you know our north star is how do we do content we have the irishman coming
upper back one the two popes, the crown in a couple of weeks that's about pleasing th commerce disney has been doing that too they've been creating content a hundred years. incredibly good at it. they're $80 billion in revenue we're 20 billion and both focused on how to we win viewing time from you by doing incredible work telling stories you all care about. >> but how much of it -- and people -- the critique about netflix is that it is a volume play, that you're trielg to beat tv, all of it. and that some of the other services at least are mechanicing themselves in a different way. i don't know if you think that they are. >> until they start producing more and then they'll say we have variety okay that's what we have saying now we have incredible variety we have a show quick silver out of sweden, crime thrill are, did superwell in sweden of course you expect or hope that but did 15 times more viewing in the rest of the world given that it
did only sweden. we have a huge opportunity there. and interesting will ---en a it's huge in argentina you get these -- if you produce a wide variety you get lots of different sharing around the world. fundamentally we want to produce everywhere in the world and connect people really build empathy through all the shows. and to do that takes a wide variety. >> how worried are you this is all one grand bubble the reason i ask is you are spending a small fortune to doing what you are doing taking on debt to do it others spending enormous amounts of money, often either taking on debt or going to at least take on losses depending on the corporate structure for quite some time. >> well probably the definition of a bubble is it goes down again. and i don't think subscribers or cumulative media spend something going down so linear tv is a huge revenue and time source declining, fueling the growth of all of the internet services. >> >> but you don't. >> including youtube and video
games. >> you don't think you take down spend. >> you plan on taking up spend quit a bit we are growing and investing around the world we've been strong in series np now strong in movies we want to -- a big thrust for us a little bit this year withes clauss is animated and next year we are getting animation slates. so we are investing heavily there. unscripted doing more and more a long way to go op the global basis. that's the thing people underestimate in the u.s. is you know the u.s. is 5% of the world's people and 95% all of those people around the world love entertainment and television. >> but there seems to be a massive land grap grab for talent, stars themself gwyneth paltrow working with you we spoke to her but for show runners you're paying some show runners $300 million to bring them aboard. >> for multiple years multiple shows. we're still not doing the very biggest movies, the $500 million
kind of movies so there is ways to go in tv we're. >> do you think you will >> i think well continue to push the edge in entertainment as we get more distribution we want to be have content and stories that female feel is number they haven't seen before. we do a lot that's very economical and tells an amazing story. others that has incredible special effects. >> pricing question for you. now that there's all the competition, one of the amazing things about netflix and so many services and you'ven a pioneer in this is to say you can cancel any time you want. >> sure. >> right and one of the things that disney is doing is trying to ee long eight if you want you can subscriber a year, three years. do you see long-term people being able to cancel as quickly as they can? the reason i ask is there are so many people i say love name a series on netflix. i'll binge or watch five series
this month and then switch it off and go over to hbo max and switch that off two months later op go to the next place. >> there is lots of ways over time different tiering times, to tune the commercialization but what we really focus on is how do we have a service people want more of the time? we don't focus how to lock them in we focus on attracting people. we want you any time you want to relax you're in front of the tv and you think do i turn on the cable linear tv? do i turn on youtube, netflix? and we want to you choose netflix because you're in the middle of a great show because you know you're going to find more because there is great titles that's the main focus. >> you talked a lot about youtube over time. and also the idea of mobile. and i've heard you make some hints more and more comments about mobile, many people watching on phones jeffery catsen rk launching kwiby next year.
do you think people are watching meaningfully -- you get the data already. watching. >> we've been listening to ceo reed hayesing on stage with aund ross sorkin at the conference. well bring you more nuts as it develops but in the mean let's trade this there are a couple of important things he was commenting on competition in the streaming wars with so many services coming online shortly. and he said we're not necessarily competing for the subscriptions we're competing for time which seems a good thing for netflix because it doesn't matter how much a person watches -- it matters more they pay the monthly fee. on the other front, andrew asked him is there a point at which you take down spend? and he said, no, we plan to take it up. >> i think the bear also say there is your reason to sell the stock you bet a big rally off to it 250 level and we flagged the 250 level remember traded down earlier this year i think in december traded back down in september. but you look at the quarter they
reported in early october. it wasn't a great quarter. and their guide for the fourth quarter was in a word horrendous in terms of u.s. ads it was less than half of what the street was looking for, international was a disappointment as well the stock bounced off an oversold condition, not unlike roku which went up 50% from late september now what you see it in the after market i think netflix can live in the world but lives to tim ace point as he has been making all along to a different valuation. >> it's interesting if you read the rf of the laugh cold war we got october 15th, 16th you heard the cash content spend was going down and that the bulls are saying that the free cash flow will essentially the burn will trough in 2019 highway just heard there doesn't tell me that's happening it doesn't mean that netflix hasn't been successful with a model that has been burning away i just believe with a stock that's trading at 95 times trailing, whatever you want to do in the future, that model for
investors is no longer a model i think they're willing to underwrite in the stock. i think the bulls will also say, though, look at the way it held the 265 level if you draw a trend lynn off the lows it needed to hold that in the held very well. i would just point out the correlation to the stock breakdown is totally as we started to truly -- we always knew about competition but truly saw it gwin to come online or articulate a plan and that obviously came to light when disney plus gave subnumbers through 2024 whether you believe it or not. >> and you never had a value play to pick at alternative. if you wanted streaming to pure play was netflix now you have a value play in disney and in apple. there is other choices so the first time i'm pretty negative in netflix not holding this level. >> i mean the question snow is is netflix going to lose subscribers because of disney? or will disney take people from linear tv. we just node note that hayesings
followed andrew that he himself subscribered to disney plus and admires them to that point. >> well, i don't think -- i don't fully buy we compete for time time and money are both rourpss nar in short supply, right so i think that it has to be that they will compete -- that they'll compete for money. that has to be not every households will be able to have everything. so i think that -- you have in business with growing competitors in the macro sense and a raw material, which is content, getting more and more expensive. so you put all of those things together even if they maintain their extraordinary position -- let's say they do. and they have obviously an enormous wab' normz head start still i come down to tim's point, the valuation reflects something so far beyond -- >> but the valuation was never good for you but now you actually have a choice where you could guy something. >> a little bit the tail wagging the dog if you buy apple how do you know how much apple tv you
buy in for. >> it was a pure play. but to your point, i don't know if it's about just keeping the viewers. isn't it about growing like for netflix as for for the story intact. >> in the u.s. >> you need them someplace. >> international. >> but in an environment here we are talking about competition. karen is bach talk about allocation dollars. at some point maybe disney plus doesn't continue to price the way they did on the introductory level but that's more attractive on a relative value perspective in terms of the offering if you look at free cash flow purn and u.s. subs which may be getting saturated we hope for more international how does the cash burn go down when content spend goes up. and you can't put that through we got so excited when they started to pass through and said okay this is a profitable company can they pass through prices now i don't think so if anything i see it in the other direction. >> that's the point i was going to make. a couple years ago they went
from $11 -- i forget -- ned a significant increase 25% or so which nobody blinked at but in erms it of move nas that was significant but inch it's impossible in this environment to raise prices. if they are spending money something has to give, right. >> what i don't like disney at 130 has to hold the level. talk about the competition there. that one is fading quickly as well and you're not getting that growth valuation with the disney i'd be careful about that not holding the lawful. >> qualcomm rallying after topping the level. spoke with the ceo and bring you the comments it's been a marvellous month for the markets. our traders take you inside the record rally and breaking down which stocks to trade and fade your favorite game >> it is. tethuch more "fast money" gh rit afr is (vo) the moth without hope, struggles in the spider's web. with every attempt to free itself, it only becomes more entangled.
unaware that an exhilarating escape is just within reach. defy the laws of human nature. at the season of audi sales event. woman: what gives me confidence about investment decisions? rigorous fundamental research. with portfolio managers focused on the long term. who look beyond the spreadsheets to understand companies, from breakroom to boardroom. who know the only way to get a 360 view is to go around the world to get it. can i rely on deep research to help make quality investment decisions? with capital group, i can. talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere.
conversation with analyst. my questions were a lot about fiefgt that's what analyst are asking about as well he told me his confidence in the fiefgt ramp higher than it was a quarter ago. told me about some stats that he mentioned again in the call around south korea, which of course has a very advanced wireless culture, the fact the ramp is happening more quickly than some expected, more quickly than 4 g did that qualcomm's revenues from 5g will really start to ramp hit the first inflection point in kwiskle q 2. also in the fall there would be another wave of devices. of course that's when people expect to see a 5g iphone. that actually matters for qualcomm now because they have resolved their legal dispute with apple and apple is paying licensing revenues and at least 10% of device revenue in calendar 2020 expected to come from 5g devices
and smartphones. analyst trying to figure out exactly what the margin profile of that is going to be, getting a little bit more color on the slope of the curve as far as when the strongest revenues will come in. but this is a stock again trading more on 5g and expectations of growth in the future, less on legal headaches and takeover concerns. they've got an analyst meeting coming up november 19th where they talk more about the growth strategy going forward. >> john, thank you john fortt with the details on qualcomm shares up 5.4%. this is quite a contrast from what we heard in july where it was a real disappointment. the forecast really gloomy and there was still the legal woes over the stock. >> i think this is what this is about. you remember they gave a september guide of being up about 4% on mobile station and overall their cdma which is was lackluster talking about four or 5% growth where it's usually mid-teens i think that's what the market
was set up for i think for a company that had a massive rerating on the back of their approved licensing deals and the regulatory environment and people wondered what was next you get the guide and the stock stuck. i think this is an important announcement for the company. >> what john was alluding to gou back to may, a 52 stock, the huge move up to the 89.9 on may 3rd gave half of it back over the last couple months and here we are again. the question you have to ask yourself is the hope of 5g and a 20 times forward p.e., does it make sense in this environment or now that we're trading up against the levels again, do you take profits this has been a stock that if you trade it you've done well. my inclination is to absolutely take profits here at the $90 level. >> fade it. >> no, no, no we're playing that later sfla later be, yes. >> but fade it. >> the big move was the april database 60% move higher from april where lawsuit news and apple news got a little easier
i don't know if i would fade it yet because a lot of people have been playing this against the china trade not working out. i believe there is more room to the upside and i believe 5g is a catalyst for the entire semi conductor space. >> i was looking to see what would trade up on the heels of this apple really didn't move but skyworks and xylinks -- they should, right, i think the whole space trades up zoumg we don't have china tariff issues >> the biggest issue -- normally you want a read through or the suppliers first then through to apple or vice versa and doesn't always work out. but for this time around it does seem the suppliersen a apple tell you the same message, that there is actually the demand that is there. and you hear that pretty consistently. >> look you have chip stocks, especially ones competing in the same place at all-time highs look at taiwan semi, the branded
maker the whielt white label for the entire sector at all-time highs in a difficult environment, difficult environment also for trading age willing stocks and the stock's at all-time highs. i think maybe we could have seen it coming, mel but i think the way they guided that september to get to where we are today is very important. >> coming up up on fast check out this stock, the mystery stock up nearly 40 peppers since the october lows does the desk trade it or fade it later earning earnings on wynn resorts and exceedia well get you all the action on fast we're back after the quick break. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ don't get mad. get e*trade, dawg.
not much, how about you? >>are you answering my text in person? i am...yeah. >>lol. come on in. this is tech that helps you be there. the nissan altima. now offering the most tech-advanced engine in its class. well back to "fast money." it has been a marvellous month for stocks with the s&p nasdaq and dow all touching record
highs. and the mechanic taking a number of big names for the ride since the recent lows on october 3rd so we thought it would be a great time to play our favorite game and also yours. >> trade it or fade it, that's right. with some rally winners. so trade it or fade it rally edition. we start with american airlines. that stock up 22% since october 3rd. karen do you trade this or fade this. >> i hate the game trade it means long i am long it yes i would trade it i think that it shouldn't have been wore it was but i also think it's really not expensive here i'd rather be in delta but if i have to choose and play the game as it is trade it yes. >> she did a would you rather within trade it or fade it. >> she did. >> brilliant. >> i allow that to happen with her. >> with her. >> preferential treatment here among the ladies. >> i'm with karen. given the choice in airlines i'd rather delta than aal but i'll trade american airlines.
>> i like airlines as people may know but aol as cheap as it comes. i want not the highest quality name but basically trading from the 57 to low 30s. the stock is breaking out above the 20 oh day which it struggled with so i trade it. >> this one for grasso. >> yeah. >> tesla, up 34% since october 3rd trade it or fade it. >> middle of october we're on the desk and i said if forced i self-would you rathered and said if forced i would be a buyer because it has a 26% short interest it's hard to carry in a short in that name that rallies this aggressive it's overbought on relative rsi index so i would say fade the trade. >> a couple of pieces of news on tesla to note today. they announced they were going to unveil the cybertruck which is a fancy word for pickup truck and elon musk language and noech 21st and s&p also changing its outlook on the debt to a positive from a negative outlook. that's why we see it up 3%
today. although you're still fading this. >> let me get out of the gates on fade. not surprising or shocking i've been fading this long time sometimes happily sometimes not so much. i think the s&p upgrade on the outlook for debt is very, very important. i'm not sure based upon that quarter that's enough. but certainly based solely on the quarter that's enough. i'm not buying the cash flow generation in the medium term and the short-term they did a nice job last quarter. >> guy, what would you do. >> i was fading at 375 at 325 i have to stick -- although sometimes the calculus changes but i don't think although it appears the fundamental story changes, it seems the cash flow situation is not as dire as this time last year i'm still more fade than trade camp. >> karen. >> i would be too just on valuation. kudos if they get it together able to meet or come close enough and production and better than close enough on cash flow generation but the valuation reflects a lot better than close enough
>> all right tim? >> your stock. >> that's me. >> general electric up 30% since the okay lows. >> trade or fade >> look, this is a turn around this is a turn around we never said was going to be easy. i'm trading this one i think larry kulp is certainly in there doing certain things in terms of cutting some of the cash flow drag it's got about a 4% free cash flow yield on it which is probably not enough to pay down as much debt we talked about this the other day are they on track or somewhere close? i think that's the debate right now. i think i'm calling them on track. i trade this. >> grasso. >> i'm still in the name it's a free cash flow comeback for ge a lot of green ahead of them a lot of mistakes they could make but they've already done that we've already heard that story before i think it's moving towards the direction of 15 sooner rather than later i'm staying in the name. >> steve in the 20 and 20 camp and he might be right at the back end but i'm in sort of the. >> what's the 2020. >> $20 by 2020.
>> remember cayman in 09. >> remember when you asked when was that. >> yeah. >> i still don't remember like ten years agoish. >> 20. >> i'm in the fade it camp jp morgan still think it goes to five who am i to argue fade it. >> given how levered it is more than any others it's substantially higher or substantially lower. i don't think we will see it here at 11 next year >> all right guy. >> hello. >> this is for you ten et health care. >> htc. >> up 40%. trade it or fade. >> you didn't give me the quick trade it or fade it. i like to hear when you say it we've discussed for a while the hospitals are cheap. you got to get these while everybody hates them everybody hated them back in the summer now all of a sudden. >> you like to zsh -- >> well everybody loves them now. i think mizuho.
>> why did you say it like that. >> i'm just reading -- off and on etic. >> this was a move today you got to get ahead of it and fade it this is the same 11 lechls we saw april take the money and run. a steve miller song miserable by the way. >> yes. >> than a hon zbla earnings rlt a on twitter leslie picker has this. >> the justice department has charged two former twitter employees with spying for saudi arabia to get personal account information of the kingdom's critics. the chargesy unveiled on wednesday in san francisco today in san francisco they came a day after the arrest of one of the former twitter employees a u.s. citizen alleged to have spied on the accounts of three users. also according to the "washington post" the second former twitter employee was accused of accessing the personal information of more than 6,000 twitter accounts in 2015 on behalf of saudi arabia the charges allege that the
twitter employees were rewardwood with a designer watch and tens of thousands of dollars sent to secret bank accounts according to the associated press. now in a statement twitter says quote we recognize the lengths bad actors will go to try and undermined our service our company limits access to sensitive account information to a limited group of trained and vetted employees we understand the incredible risks faced by many using twitter to share perspectives with the world and to hold those in power accountable. we have tools in place to protect their privacy and their ability to do in re vital work melissa. >> so these are people spying on behalf of the saudi government >> correct they were former twitter employees who during the time at twitter were allegedly according to the justice department doing work on behalf of the kingdom. >> all right leslie, thank you. leslie picker. in sounds like something that could happen at any company. >> it does
although, i mean -- there was certainly know acceptance of the fact that something broke down in the system. they go out of the way to protect users of twitter and it's a high-trust situation. but what happened at twitter that these folks were allowed to run wild that's concerning, right i mean these were twitter employees. >> also, u.s. citizens, though, i mean, who is to say -- i don't know when you -- when you hire somebody who knows that. >> there has to be checks, though, to tib tim's point there has to be internal checks. we're talking. >> you guys think it's a bigger problem. >> i got to understand it. >> i think it can happen. >> it could happen anywhere. >> with you we raked facebook over the coals give to give twitter a little slap here too. >> it's different isn't it. >> some of it was breaking through and essentially having a breach of the platform but there was something from inside that allowed it to happen i believe. but ultimately we are talking about twitter employees that
transgressed, aren't we? shouldn't the company -- i mean the company manages the people don't they. >> i'm with you. >> all right we've got another news alert on alphabet, dedra bosa live in san francisco with this. >> alphabet board of directors has opened an investigation into how executives handled claims much sexual harassment and other misconduct according to materials video viewed by the cnbc they have hired a law firm to assist with the investigation and contact alleged victims. now claims include the behavior of chief legal officer david drummond accused of relationships with employees a company spokesperson didn't immediately return a request for comment but, melissa, this comes after alphabet shareholders sued the board in january for allegedly covering up sexual misconduct from executives back to you. >> are there policies in place i don't know if you know this dedra, are there policies leak in the mcdonald's case that explicitly says that certain people should not have relationships with others?
>> well, i think there's been a lot of pressure, particularly after the cofwound err andrew reuben was paid $$90 million after a sbrernl investigation found the sexual assault claims credible this was according to a "new york times" report and it set up a walkout. this is the next piece of it this has been building you can check out more on the story go to cnbc.com jennifer elliott was the one breaking the news. >> dedra bosa in san francisco there is irony it's the chief legal officered accused of misconduct here. >> i think there is two -- there is separate things, the consensual replaces when you work all the time and there are tens of thousands of employees, i mean, you know, that's -- that's what's going to happen, right? that's different and a harassment or you know, feeling -- i assume it's women feeling they couldn't advance as par of it totally different thing. >> agreed. >> but unfortunately -- you're
right. but it is it going to be -- you would hope it would have negative -- but it's not going to be. i don't think it's moving the stock at all and google continues -- you'll get a chart. it does everything right higher lows, higher highs, valuation reasonable and my world as long as we stay above the august 2018 high of 1250 or so, the trend continues to be your friend in the name and the treb is higher >> two news alert on twitter on alphabet do either of these things impact the stock. >> guy you said no on alphabet on this one what do you say. >> i think the twitter is certainly has a greater ability to affect the stock on the tone around the stock and the core business and trust and privacy and whatnot. i think. >> it should -- >> whatever a terrible transgression for that person. and. and the company needs to do what they have to do. but if this doesn't affect. >> look at the sell i don't have already in twitter i think it shuch the ability to affect the stock but it's sold off so dramatically recently. so let's just see where there is -- because you are getting the reversion bounce at some
point in twitter that might be muted a little mute the action but google has had a target on its back from the government that's in the mix that could move higher. >> coming up one the top execs at kmarls schwab joins us bern youny arwe tclk ell you what he sees coming for stocks much more fmd straight ahead for farmers here, this is our life's work. but when a recall happens, perfectly good food goes to waste. now, we've got away around that. looks good. we're on target. blockchain on the ibm cloud helps pinpoint a problem anywhere from farm to shelf.
let me tell you something, i wouldn't be here if i thought reverse mortgages took advantage of any american senior, or worse, that it was some way to take your home. learn how homeowners are strategically using a reverse mortgage loan to cover expenses, pay for healthcare, preserve your portfolio and so much more. a reverse mortgage loan isn't some kind of trick to take your home. it's a loan, like any other. big difference is how you pay it back. find out how reverse mortgages really work with aag's free, no-obligation reverse mortgage guide. with a reverse mortgage, you can pay whatever you can, when it works for you, or, you can wait, and pay it off in one lump sum when you leave your home. discover the option that's best for you. call today and find out more. i'm proud to be a part of aag, i trust em, i think you can too.
is. welcome back to "fast money. exceedia moving in the red off the earnings results seema modi at headquarters with the details. seema. >> and the stock continues to fall down 12% in descend extended trade the ceo says we're disappointed with the result in the third quarter. we understand the near-term challenges on the call analysts have been asking questions related to the home rental platform verb o formerly known as home away. after two quartering of growth it slaw saw a slight improvement. but revenue fell from 17% it sawed in the second quarter year over year. a lot of experts are pointing to the rapidly evolving and crowded home rental market that includes airbnb, exceedia saying it continues to put more money towards rebranding and marketing and expanding the platform
internationally and into new markets in 2020. but for now it expects muted growth other headwinds that it's dealing with embedded reference onle call process protests in hong kong, currency fluctuations and a french digital tax the company saying that the global tax environment is rapidly evolving and several countries are considering transactional level taxes. too early to understand the complications. you can see the stock down 12% after hours still holding a gain for the year >> more broadly, seema, you've been doing the stories all week long so far about the various data points within the travel industry that indicate that there is a slowing going on. >> yeah, absolutely. part of it the consumer a bit more selective on the type of travel they want to do in this softening economic environment at the same time there are structural changes at play one of them being the rising interest in home rentals with that comes a crowded environment and crowded market with more players, not just in
the public market but private as well ahead of airbnb's ipo next year. >> seema back at headquarters thank you. >> guy how do you trade these. >> topped out at 140 in exceedy in july. another push and failed. now here we are testing the levels i think we ha last saw the end of may, june, the 115 level. you can make an argument this might be an interesting play home from the long side if it trades 115, holds on two and a half, three times normal volume. i hear what they said. i get it it wasn't crazy expensive in the first place obviously changed a little bit but if it holds 115 tomorrow which it may on big volume you buy the stock. >> it's stuff because the momentum play was the vrbo if the vrbo is selling or not growing as quickly that's the competition in the market. i don't think you buy it here. but if you look at vac, marriott vacation world that's their time share, the stock up 68% they seem to be doing something
welcome back to "fast money" stocks near y'allen-tie times what should you do with are oh money. >> bernie clark joins us live from the schwab impact conference in san diego. great to have you with us. >> it's great to be here. >> you know, for every guest we get all the little notes and the notes i read don't really jive with the markets being at record highs. 65% of yorp advisers anticipate a possible recession that's now up versus six months ago 40% of the advisers saying reaching client goals difficult. 83% of clients worried about a recession yet here we are at record highs, bernie what gives. >> i think you feel some of the impact of the volatility really seen since the fourth quarter of last year and ups and down we field add study in september. advisers are notoriously cautious on behalf of clients. about. but i'm at impact right now and
there are 2,300 clients and there is a lot of optimism about the future and perhaps we're just seeing normalized markets with some ups and downs instead of the long down and long up trends we've seen over the past decade. >> do they buy to this value rotation that's been going on? >> i'm sorry >> do are they buying -- the advisers, do they believe in this value rotation we've been seeing in the markets. >> i think they do and listening carefully. i will tell you, we were very careful around some of our predictions coming into this and we had some of our economists talking yesterday and you can see the movement in the rotation they're taking everybody through and rebalancing. but remember advisers fundamentally they are in for the long haul appearen working more on the life plan of the clients rather than pofrlts and letting the portfolios follow that direction they are astute and move cautiously. >> but bernie if he could we could read through to the
sentiment you're expressing, can we take away a lot of the dwirsds conservative for clients have been more conservative in the environment and if anything are underweight or might be in a mode with a bullish close to the year they may feel some anxiety, possibly some fomo. >> i think what they are doing is they're being rather neutral in the environment as we have seen and trying to not to overweight in any one direction. but moving as the market moves they tend to move ahead of the sentiment of the retail client and that's kept them out in front of the curve i think more so and aggressive where they need to to be aggressive again, the the pofrlts never being structured as overall entire firm portfolio but more directed towards the needs of the individual client. >> bernie, karen, let me ask you on the fixed income portion of your portfolio for clients in this rate environment, what are you advising, smaller or more on the risk spectrum or just get
very low rates >> well, i think the important thing to remember is as a custodian for advisers and having 1.7 trillion in assets that we safe keep for them we don't make the recommendations on the pofrlts the advisers do. and they individually craft them for each of their clients. it's really a very individualized decision. and each adviser that is a strategy they follow also on behalf of clients. it's not our job to recommend the mix of product they're in but we are making sure that the capability and the products are all available to them. >> bernie, great to speak with you. thanks for your time. >> okay. thanks very much >> bernie clark of charles schwab adviser services. this is all part of the conversation we've been having the past couple days that is, do you believe in this rally? is seasonality going to be enough keeping us at the levels into the end of the year >> you have a tremendous amount of news flow that's going to take place and you have the year end. i think you're going to get whatever weakness you're going
to get is going to be in november and everyone will be back to work in december when you look at charles schwab and those types of stocks, they're very levered to interest rates. because any carry such a big balance. so -- >> the company it's disbelieve the company itself we're talking about this -- the stock alone so they've been fairly judged on where the interest rates are so make them investable -- that's why they've underperformed now with powell getting in the way sayings rates aren't goings eup as soon. it's great for the market. to the first question, i think the market has a tough time going town down for any extended period of time when they continue to get easy money but for this stock in particular it's tough clearly being kept cal as i've been has been wrong. i mean the market -- we're at all-time highs, here we are. but the reasons to be skeptical with still there i mean they have not gone away in my opinion. we can talk u.s. china again it's all pos touring i don't think anybody is
happening. negative rates exist slowdowns exist. warren buffett with $122 billion a record level for him sitting on the sideline and his indicator is flashing red high pressure his being the wilshire 5,000 market cap over gdp. it's about 146%. levels we haven't seen in decade the warning signs are there but the market wants to go higher to steve's point. >> up next, disney gearing up to report earnings and options traders bet the results could spark a magical rally for the stock. we'll break down the action. jim talking with the ceo of cvs after the big earnings beat today. the full interview coming up at the top of the hour. uave at the nasdaq in times much more "fast money" still ahead. artner" really mean? someone i can trust. (impact, click) who is with me for the long-term. who understands i'm dealing with lives, not only livelihoods. that in order to help people, i need more than products,
i need quality support and insights. can i find someone who partners with me to achieve people's long-term success? with capital group, i can. talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. ♪ not much, how about you? >>are you answering my text in person? i am...yeah. >>lol. come on in. this is tech that helps you be there. the nissan altima. now offering the most tech-advanced engine in its class. to take care of yourself. but nature's bounty has innovative ways to help you maintain balance and help keep you active and well-rested. because hey, tomorrow's coming up fast. nature's bounty. because you're better off healthy.
welcome back to "fast money. disney is gearing up for a couple of marmg events over the next week. it's highly anticipated streaming service disney plus debuts next tuesday. but before that earning, reporting after the bell tomorrow and the traders in the options market are betting on big gains. mike khouw in san francisco with the action >> calls outpaced puts by 2 to 1 on double the average daily options volume representing about 120,000 contracts total trading in the options implying a move of 3.7% on earnings that may seem modest given the moves in other stocks. but it's worth noting this is a
stock mochgt less than 1.5% on the last eight quarters. where we saw motivate october was the november 22nd weekly 135 strike calls that's capturing both of the upcoming events. between 10 and 10:30 and nearly 13,000 traded all day buyers of the calls bet the calls with rallying through the $2 strike price they paid. they may be targeting the all-time highs they saw in august, a little more than 10% higher than now. when we look at some of the things guy was talking about, disney, like many other stocks is trading close to if not at the peak valuation on a variety of metrics it would make sense to use inexpensive call options to press the bullish bets here i think. >> the bar is high in other words going into this earnings release. what's the number one thing that need to hear tomorrow. >> >> they're talking more about disney plus. i'm not sure they give you more suboutlook i want to hear about studio.
they've also had great uped grades in the theme parks. that's an important part of the diversity in the company but i want to hear about studio. fox films -- karen asked we did the nice power pitch on this and karen asked about fox has it been integrate >> i think fox films is a drag on studio. ultimately that's been a game saver for disney but i'm long in the numbers. >> talking about disney, karen, in relationship to netflix and valuation but is disney a value stock still. >> you don't now how much the market assigned to any particular piece of it but yeah, i think it is. it's a premier company in so many businesses. the absolute best of the best. and so i think i agree with tim tim, we're not getting clarity for a while actually to see how the subscribers -- at least six months to have any good sense. i like it though it was -- i had the time of my life for you >> it was a rare win >> we don't win.
>> you don't get a rerating on valuation process. when you said is it a value stock do people say you have a streaming entity, so you have the -- so you have more. it can only help valuation in my opinion. so maybe you get a little bit of the expansion. and to mike's point if this is the higher enof valuation maybe you break through that. >> i could have power pitched disney and would have gotten shellacked because tim is a fan favorite and they just enjoy. >> i think disney is a fan favorite. >> disney is. >> interesting what you are doing there. calling me the fan favorite. very nice. >> i know the music that plays when i do that stupid thing. eck hanks mike chout the full show "options action" friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time up next final trades. >> announcer: "options action" sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade i see best-in-class platforms and education. i see award-winning service, and a trade desk full of experts,
available to answer your toughest questions. and i see it with zero commissions on online trades. i like what you're seeing. it's beautiful, isn't it? yeah. td ameritrade now offers zero commissions on online trades. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ by the way, she's the it wasnext mozart.g day. as usual we were behind schedule. but sophie's enthusiasm cannot be dampened.
play, a value play hoping their rotation still has legs in it tse. >> guy. >> we had a lot of fun in the commercial break unfortunately the folks at home don't say it. >> unfortunately. >> expe against 115. >> see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. well t other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jim cramer. now that big business has rediscovered the urge to merge, some things here, just because a deal makes sense